(Editor’s note: Special thanks to sdchickens, Steve Renner, for providing today’s MLB DFS write-up. One of the many good eggs of the #ScoutArmy! Steve posts updates on occasion throughout the day. To find the latest and most updated version of this article, go straight to his post here on the Premium forum.)
All Games Play
- Warm with wind blowing out in Wrigleyville again today.
- Hot as balls in New York for the Orioles/Yanks
Those will be your chalk hitting games….
PITCHING – ACES
So here we are two months into another baseball season and once again the trend that ace pitchers underperform on Sunday afternoon games has continued. It’s a tradition that I look at almost every Sunday to identify the ace pitchers and look to fade them for a sneakier choice.
Chris Archer … Archer at home is fantastic and the match-up here is a really good one against an Oakland team that strikes out a ton on the road, especially against RHP. The Athletics lineup is already out and it looks like Archer should have a blow-up free game today. But for his price on both sites, he has to be locked in and I think Jesse Hahn pitches well on the other side. There’s a ton of games in great hitting conditions early and Archer has the one spot where there’s no heat to worry about.
Carlos Carrasco … I love CC coming off a little bit of extended rest. This year in 15 innings against the White Sox he has 15 K and only 1 ER. The wind blowing out to RF is the big concern for me here as I think Melky Cabrera takes him deep but CC is likely going to be very popular given his price discount compared to Archer and should bounce back after a rough start last weekend.
PITCHING – SP2 / My Tier Of Guys
Adam Wainwright & Aaron Nola … Cardinals aren’t hitting worth a crap right now. Neither are the Phillies much but I see this being a low scoring 3-2 game.. Prefer Nola slightly.
Jesse Hahn … Nobody will touch him opposite Archer but this is a sneaky play in a GPP with a mini Oakland HR stack against the Sunday Ace blow-up.
Chad Green … If Machado is out he becomes a very good GPP play to stack Wrigley with.
FAVORITE CHALK STACKS
- Colorado … I think the Cubs will bounce back today, but I am putting the Rockies first because they’re the better team and have the better matchup in my view. Arrieta’s down in the zone pitching style spells disaster against Gonzalez and Arenado and after a scorching .359 with 6 HR, 5 triples and 6 double May, Charlie Blackmon has started off June hitting .417 with 7 XBH. Yet nobody plays him. Rockies score 6+ again today without even yawning.
- New York (AL) … This will be chalk. They’ll be higher owned than the Cubs IMO given recency bias and that’s a good reason to pivot down to the Cubs in GPP’s. But Gausman is a HR machine on the road. The temps are extremely warm and the Yanks are obviously rolling after their blowout yesterday. You have to decide between a Yankee or Cub fade today. Logic and numbers say play the Yanks, so thats why they’re #2.
- Chicago (NL) … The Cubs dont arent hitting flame throwers and that is all Senzatella and the Rockies staff is doing. But the weather conditions and the “day after flopping” theory cannot be ignored either. Rizzo and Jason Heyward lead the way for me on the Cubs side today.
MY FAVORITE SNEAKY STACKS
- Miami/Philly … Nova has come back down to earth but the Stanton injury weakens that lineup quite a bit. I like the Pirates to beat up on Locke a little bit and I don’t see anyone playing a stack of Osuna-Freese-Diaz-McCutchen but that’s a fantastic stack with Archer. .
- Atlanta … Love this spot. You want warm temps? Atlanta! You want hitters park? Atlanta! You want garbage bullpen matchup? Atlanta! You want a team who plays in a city where the football team blew a 28-3 lead in the super-bowl? Atlanta! I can’t have enough Danny Santana in my Braves stacks today.
- Baltimore … Doubt they are heavily owned today. Massive HR upside.
REALLY SNEAKY STACK
- Oakland … Pinder, Healy.
- Houston .. Not touching them….
- St. Louis
TOP INDIVIDUAL PLAYS
- Gary Sanchez
- Elias Diaz
- BEEF Castillo
- JT Realmuto
- Crush Davis
- Anthony Rizzo
- Matt Adams
- Ryon Healy
- Starlin Castro – Chalk
- DJ LeMahieu
- Chad Pinder
- Evan Longoria
- Jose Ramirez – Very sneaky play outside of the big names today.
- Nolan Arenado
- Kris Bryant
- Francisco Lindor
- Addison Russell
- Didi Gregorius
- JT Riddle
OUTFIELDERS – Top Tier
- Charlie Blackmon – NL MVP.
- Aaron Judge – Yeah. He hits baseballs far and fast.
- Brett Gardner – The one guy who did NOTHING last night for the Yanks. Smells like a Gardner double dong game.
- Jason Heyward – Play him in your Cub stacks… Do it…
OUTFIELDERS – Mid-Tier
- Aaron Hicks
- Adam Jones
- Andrew McCutchen
- Corey Dickerson
- Carlos Gonzalez – Sinker, golfed into the bleachers.
- Cameron Maybin
- Ender Inciarte
- Steven Souza Jr – Sunday Souza…..
OUTFIELDERS – Value Tier
This tier has absolutely MURDERED Sundays this year….
- Danny Santana
- Jose Osuna
- Austin Jackson
- Tyler Moore
- Jon Jay – Chalk leading off in Wrigley.
- Juan Lagares
- Brett Gardner – OF – Chairman
- Chad Pinder – 2B
- Kris Bryant – 3B
- Didi Gregorius – SS
- Crush Davis – 1B
- Danny Santana – OF
- Jason Heyward – OF
- Welington Castillo – C
- BONUS ……………………….. Carlos Gonzalez – OF
To find the latest and most updated version of this article, go straight to his post here on the Premium forum.