- Yu Darvish (TEX) @HOU, vs. SEA
- Jacob deGrom (NYM) vs. CHC, vs. WAS
- Clayton Kershaw (LAD) @CLE, @CIN
- Jimmy Nelson (MIL) @STL, vs. SD
- Stephen Strasburg (WAS) vs. ATL, @NYM
- Jason Vargas (KC) @SF, @LAA
Bauer is one of the most difficult pitchers to figure out. Bauer has an 11.03 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 1.60 HR/9. The 6.10 ERA is misleading, but he has a 1.48 WHIP and a 39.1 percent hard hit rate. He has limited the awful starts recently, but did allow five walks and four earned runs in 3.1 innings in his last start.
Chatwood has a 7.03 ERA at home and 2.53 on the road. At least the home start comes against one of the weaker offenses.
Cotton has been average in three starts since being called up against good offenses. The walks are still an issue. In those three starts spanning 17.1 innings, Cotton has walked 11 with 13 strikeouts, but allowed just 10 hits.
Buck Farmer (Tigers) vs. ARI, vs. TB
Farmer has pitched well in his two starts with a 16:3 K:BB ratio in 13 scoreless innings, while allowing six hits against the Angels and White Sox. The Diamondbacks don’t hit as well on the road.
Foltynewicz has pitched well with a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has allowed very little hard contact with a 27.8 percent mark. The Nationals matchup is the challenging one.
Freeland is always risky because of the low strikeouts, but he has a 57.5 percent ground ball rate and has a good road matchup and a weaker offense at home.
Lackey has a 5.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, but has a 9.21 K/9 and 2.69 BB/9. He is getting crushed by home runs with a 2.05 HR/9.
Lance Lynn (Cardinals) vs. MIL, @BAL
In nine of his 11 starts, Lynn has allowed two earned runs or less, but he has allowed eight home runs in his last five starts and has a 1.57 HR/9. Lynn has a 2.88 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.
Odorizzi’s biggest problem is home runs. He has allowed 12 in 57.2 innings, but has a 3.59 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.96 K/9 and a 2.81 BB/9. This is all in line with what he has done the last couple of seasons.
Two awful starts against the Diamonbacks have made Perdomo’s stats appear worse than they should be. He allowed 13 runs in seven innings against Arizona. In six of his last eight starts against other opponents, he has allowed three earned runs or less in all of them. He has a 66.3 percent ground ball rate.
I stayed away from Porcello in season leagues due to his high price and the likelihood he wouldn’t be as good as last season, but I didn’t expect it to be this bad. He has a 4.46 ERA and 1.49 WHIP, but an 8.7 K/9 and 1.79 BB/9. The problem is a 1.56 HR/9, .361 BABIP and a 42.2 percent hard hit rate. The Phillies are a good matchup, but the Astros present a daunting task.
David Price (Red Sox) vs. PHI, @HOU
Price had his first bad start out of three against the Yankees Thursday. Price has a bad history against the Yankees, but the velocity was good. The Astros start is the concern.
Joe Ross (Nationals) vs. ATL, @NYM
After allowing seven earned runs in 11 innings over two starts, Ross struck out 12 in 7.1 innings, while allowing one earned run and no walks in a win over the Orioles. Ross has been inconsistent, with two greats starts and two awful ones in his last four.
Sabathia has pitched extremely well the last few starts and has two good matchups. He has allowed two earned runs or less in five straight starts. In 30.1 innings in that span, he has allowed 25 hits with a 31:6 K:BB ratio.
Taillon returns after having surgery for testicular cancer in early May. Taillon made three rehab starts. Taillon is 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six starts this season.
Wheeler has pitched well with a 3.45 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and an 8.04 K/9. He gets two tough matchups, but he’s been getting better with a 2.74 ERA in May and 2.03 this month.
Arroyo has a 6.25 ERA and has allowed 20 home runs in 63.1 innings.
Alec Asher (Orioles) @CWS, vs. STL
Asher has struggled badly in two of his last three starts, although they were in Houston and Washington.
In six starts, Bergman has allowed three earned runs or less in five. The other start he allowed 10 earned runs. He has allowed eight home runs in 38 innings and doesn’t get a lot of swings and misses.
Ty Blach (Giants) vs. KC, @COL
Blach has been successful with a 3.64 ERA and 1.15 WHIP despite a 3.64 K/9. That’s a lot of contact to allow in Coors Field.
He has a 5.15 ERA and 1.53 WHIP with two bad matchups.
He has a 6.26 ERA and 1.61 WHIP.
Kyle Gibson (Twins) vs. SEA, vs. CLE
Gibson has a 6.52 ERA, 4.84 BB/9 and a 39 percent hard hit rate.
Holland was pitching well, but the peripherals showed it wasn’t going to last and the last two starts have showed it. He has allowed 14 runs over his last seven innings, including six home runs. He has a 41 percent hard hit rate.
Ben Lively (Phillies) @BOS, vs. ARI
Lively has pitched seven innings in each of his first two starts, but has struck out three with a 4.6 swinging strike rate. That’s not ideal with these opponents.
Mejia has a 4.73 BB/9 and 1.95 HR/9 in seven starts.
Alex Meyer (Angels) vs. NYY, vs. KC
Meyer throws hard and can get strikeouts with a 10.44 K/9, but he has a 6.11 BB/9. He has allowed one earned run in his last 12 innings, but the Yankees can get his pitch count up quickly.
Wade Miley (Orioles) @CWS, vs. STL
While Miley has a 3.27 ERA, he has a 1.53 WHIP and a 4.83 BB/9. Miley’s strikeouts are down also with four strikeouts or less in five straight starts. He has 15 in his last 26.2 innings.
Joe Musgrove (Astros) vs. TEX, vs. BOS
Musgrove has been hit this season, allowing a .280 average and nine home runs in 53.1 innings.
Mike Pelfrey (White Sox) vs. BAL, @TOR
Pelfrey has been good his last four starts, but it seems like he can implode at any time. He has reached the sixth inning once in those four starts, but allowed four earned runs with a 19:6 K:BB ratio in 21.1 innings.
J.C. Ramirez (Angels) vs. NYY, vs. KC
After a nice run, Ramirez is beginning to struggle. He has allowed 11 runs over his last 9.1 innings and the converted reliever is already close to last season’s innings total.
I always make these recommendations based on what I would do. I don’t own Tanaka and can’t talk from my personal rosters. The matchups are favorable and he’s on the road for two, but he’s already been pushed back a day and the home runs are a real concern. While Tanaka has allowed 10 home runs at home, he has allowed seven on the road, too. He did strike out 13 against the A’s on May 26. If he struggles against the Angels, he might not get the second start.
Jose Urena (Marlins) vs. OAK, @ATL
He has allowed nine home runs in 52.1 innings and has a 1.36 WHIP.